Forecasts at Scale: General Equilibrium Impacts of Climate Adaptation
Awardees: Amir Jina, Fiona Burlig, Erin Kelley, Gregory Lane
Climate change will increase weather risk for small-holder farmers in low-income countries. This project will use a novel approach to addressing this risk: accurate, long-range forecasts, which provide farmers information well in advance of the growing season about seasonal weather realizations. This project builds on Burlig et al (2024), a successful RCT in 250 villages which demonstrated that forecasts of the timing of the Indian summer monsoon’s onset led farmers to substantially adjust up-front investments such as land use, crop choice, and inputs. In this scaling proposal, the researchers will partner with the Indian Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare to deliver monsoon onset forecasts to millions of farmers across Telangana, using a low-cost SMS platform operated by the government. The project will embed a randomized saturation design into this scale-up, enabling the researchers to measure general equilibrium impacts of these forecasts, including information transfer between farmers and impacts on crop prices. The results from this experiment have the potential to both direct significant investment into the development of new forecasting technology for farmers across the tropics and encourage governments worldwide to disseminate this information at scale.
“We investigate the impact of delivering weather forecasts to one million farmers across Telangana. The findings from this study could drive substantial investment in developing cutting-edge forecasting technologies for farmers throughout the tropics and inspire governments globally to scale up the dissemination of this crucial information.”
